It’s only a little over 48 hours to go until the polls close all around the United Kingdom and the media outlets bring us the exit poll we all awaited or dreaded take your pick. However when it comes to elections many of us certainly feel like a 14 year old on his or her birthday when our parents tell us that we can only have a shandy when we are 18. Naturally we heed not such advice and look for ways to get one in a clandestine way even if the quality is not the best. So to soothe our nauseating curiosity an amateurish poll is always a good remedy. Over the last 6 weeks I have done some number-crunching and have come up with three potential outcomes. Now naturally I have not been blessed with the resources and the capacities of the polling giants such as Yougov or others so my methodology is fairly limited. My research mainly hinges on analyses of past voting records, the referendum result in each constituency, polling done by the polling gurus, EU Parliament voting results, bookies odds, review of candidates social media and other things I could get my hands on (for free obviously). There are three potential scenarios that my research finds so no time to waste let’s get started.
A BIG WIN FOR BORIS
From the first second the election was called Boris Johnson went on a slogan filled populist offensive. With a boom in his voice he travelled all around the country promising to “Get Brexit Done” with the bravado and the guile of his idol and the personification of Britishness – Winston Crouch (a shopkeeper from West Malling). Boris has appealed to the masses claiming that he has agreed a ‘fantastic’ deal with the EU, it’s oven-ready, stick it in to the microwave and we’re all sorted. Pretty much all the pollsters agree that this message has worked and has won over the hearts of minds of the British people including those from working class towns that would have never ever thought about voting for Conservatives even if it was free. So in such a scenario where indeed voting patterns will be decided solely on the way people voted in the referendum in 2016 my prediction is that Boris will get his majority easily with a thumping margin. If this comes to fruition we can already imagine us five years on having a drink with our usual pubbing companion and discussing have we really got Brexit done and have we felt any effects of it, only to notice that the only thing that has changed is the shirt of our companion, whilst ours hasn’t leaving us slightly embarrassed.
Still a big win for Boris
The second and most reasonable scenario according to most of the pollsters and predictions is that the Conservatives will hang on to pretty much all seats bar a few that they won in 2017 with slight loses to the Liberal Democrats whilst Labour is set to lose 50 seats from the last election. Even the analysis here finds it to be the most likeliest scenarios with Conservatives up 36 seats, Lib Dems taking a modest gain of 4 seats and the SNP up to 44 from 38 they won in 2017. This would surely be a satisfying result for the Conservatives who will be able to plough on with their Brexit deal with a 27-strong majority. This would be good news to those who has bought “We’re Leaving” shirts as Christmas presents and we can expect a Brexit deal squeezed through by then.
Any chance to stop a Conservative majority?
So it all seems gloom and doom for those who fear a Tory majority. Is there still any way that we are in for a shock and a Conservative outright win is denied with a Labour win all but impossible? Well it’s quite improbable, but yes it’s still a possibility. A lot of things have to go the way of the parties that are not Conservatives, but hope is still there for them. First it is obvious they will have to be hoping that not only themselves do well, but so do the other non-tory parties. When it comes to Labour they are expected to be rejected at the ballot-box this time around due to their Brexit policy. However interestingly for Labour this might be a night where it is not so much about not losing seats, but simply not too many if the other parties do well. They could still also make gains in areas such as Chingford and Woodford Green where Faiza Shaheen has launched a superb campaign to overturn the ever-shrinking majority of the Tory stalwart Iain Duncan Smith and the only available public polling shows them neck to neck with less than two percent separating them. Also in such constituencies as Aberconwy in Wales where the Tories are sitting on a wafer-thin majority of 635 all is not certain. The area voted to the leave the EU in 2016, but by a slim margin of 4,2 %. Couple this with the fact that the incumbent Tory MP Gutto Bebb who has been in the seat since it’s creation in 2010 is standing down and the new prospective MP Robin Millar has been shipped in from Ipswich which the constituents have not taken well to. Meanwhile Labour’s Emily Owen has run a strong and a positive campaign which should leave the Conservatives worried. Also in another Welsh constituency – Presseli Pembroksire the incumbent Tory MP and once Conservative leadership hopeful Stephen Crabb has went through a sexting scandal since the election and who knows that might leave an impact on his re-election prospect. Whilst no doubt many working class constituencies who voted to leave in 2016 will flock to the Conservatives, we cannot really tell how many. For many a year the Tories have promised carrots to such towns and been flatly turned away, with some constituencies never voting in a Conservative MP in their entire existence. Will constituencies like Darlington, Scunthorpe or Bolsover finally let a Tory in? For there to be no Conservative majority tactical voting will have to happen no doubt. Whilst major pollsters demonstrate that nationally Labour are squeezing the Lib Dems vote percentage on a local level Lib Dems still remain a big threat to Tory-held seats. There are more than enough constituencies where tactical voting could oust the incumbent Tory MP’s. Guildford, South Cambridgeshire, Chelsea and Fulham, Cheadle, Winchester, Warwick and Leamington, Cities of London are amongst them even the seat of Dominic Raab is not at all certain. There are many seats where in the scenario of Labour and Lib Dem idealists turn pragmatists for a day lending their vote to each other could see the Tories losing a number of seats. This prediction does not include the fact that even Boris Johnson himself cannot be certain of the safety of his Uxbridge and South Ruislip where a young and relatable Ali Milani has launched an ambitious and energetic campaign to oust him and where tactical voting could be enough to force the Prime Minister out. Whilst this is unlikely it is just possible owing to the fact that Milani is a local and has invested quite a lot of time canvassing in Uxbridge, whilst the only time Boris Johnson is seen in the area is when a new Beefeater is opened. Another factor that might contribute to the downfall of the Conservatives is that they can still sustain some losses in Scotland. Whilst all the polling companies show the Tories not losing much ground nationally in Scotland, the picture is far from certain locally and the SNP could quite possible pick up as many as 47 seats if not more damaging the Conservatives push for a majority. So albeit this is improbable, but a scenario where Tories fail to pick up as many ‘leave’ seats as they would like, coupled with Lib Dems nicking some seats from them as well as a strong performance by the SNP could guarantee that the image of Dominic Raab sweating on live TV which we all saw following the final leaders debate could well repeat itself as the Tories might end up with a similar result that they did with in 2017.
